The Root Trend

Transparency Means Getting To Better Answers Faster

Last Sunday's headline article in the NYT asked about the Constitutionality of what has become routine cell phone tracking by law enforcement for all manner of crimes. The part that immediately caught my attention was how phone companies have quietly built businesses selling these valuable services to local police. Some towns have even invested in their own equipment to be able to protect citizens.

It is very easy to be concerned about this, so let's focus on what is great about it.

Look at how quickly the US is getting to these pointed big questions. In two decades we have gone from broad adoption of personal mobile phones, and early unformed questions about the implications of electronic tracking techniques, to now having them discussed in Supreme Court cases. The issue in the NYT headline above is not up for high court review yet but, it will be. 

In an open society we get to answers more quickly on the big questions. Sure this article talks about how various police policies instruct personnel not to talk about cell phone tracking in their public statements but this is not state secrecy. That these details are all discoverable and printed in headline stories is very important.

Several news stories last week mentioned how China is broadening micro-blog censorship. No surprise there.

Free and open societies, and markets, take us from questions to answers more quickly. Free markets commonly put up self-serving barriers to enhance profits but these are made vulnerable over time through innovation and competition. In the case of ubiquitous cell phone GPS tracking by law enforcement, we will get to legal standards fairly quickly based on an interpretation of the Constitution but what about business? The high court isn't the only one thinking about digital data privacy and these threads are the same at the level of the shared values being expressed.  Monday's Washington Post has an editorial by the chairman of the FTC citing concern about consumer privacy in all matters digital. These news items together suggest that the moving average of specific shared values is signaling change. 

Let's remember that rules and laws impulsively applied to free markets without a well developed discussion can cause large unintended consequences. There cannot be an election for most laws (nor would we want them) but that special business interests consistently access the legislative process for shorter term goals is part of seeing the ultimate solution. There's good reason to feel we are back in an era of dominant businesses and big money driving legislation, elections, and headlines. 

Apple's PR massage of their recent unfavorable headlines was nicely done with a little misdirection and topped with Chinese workers worrying about cuts to their hours. Off the radar, back here, has been the effort to grab spectrum and bottle up data connectivity into the existing phone/data oligopoly.

These days, important ideas spread rapidly and more efficiently. This new dynamic increasingly cuts both ways.

Likewise, peak social mood influenced us as we adopted new tools and began sharing information extensively.  Our collective expansion of digital technology coincided with a stretched out peak of multi-generational proportions in social mood. The broad impulse to share spread out like a glass of water spilled into many parts of our open society.  Both newspaper links (above) make it clear to us just how pervasive and broadly the digital sharing impulse has been accepted by the collective "us". I don't expect everyone to see it this way but it is more than coincidental. We were told authoritatively that our digital behavior was public behavior for many years. With that backdrop, and with commercial enterprises monitoring digital behavior of customers, social mood helped produce a backdrop of willing suspension of disbelief that this might lead to anything less than good.

The sharing trend we've been expressing reflects the long term peak period of social mood and the patterns of social correction too. It is very helpful to try to see both these reflections of mood in these broad new behaviors because it suggests where the lasting value is being created. Think: communities.  The era of the individual digital broadcaster isn't going to end but it will be contrasted by a new balancing social impulse that emphasizes the power of organized groups and demands a lot of what Chris Anderson called mass customization acknowledging the changed nature of digital content & exchanges.

When some of the air is let out of social 1.0 software, left behind will be the immense utility created, contrasted by changing expressions of shared values (that are very broad in scope), and it will all be eventually balanced out by a more competitive marketplace. Likewise, when our collective willingness to look the other way at government/law enforcement regarding privacy concerns wanes, we will make diverse decisions that require more structure and rules.

Like the TSA airport hassles, we stretch ourselves when safety is truly involved but when rights are violated because it is easy to do, or because it is the path of least resistance for businesses to make a dollar, change will be part of social corrections.

Some might read the two news items above and be concerned. I will worry if there are not more stories like this being reported.

First we get together into markets to grow new tools and ideas. Then later, comes the needed correction of that previous growth. It's a pattern influenced by social mood that produces broad changing shared values and is aided by transparency in all of our systems. The definition of Better is always based on the values a market shares. Soon there will be a stark difference drawn between individual sharing and the free-for-all happening with our digital data now. Responsibilities will increase for all participants. After that, we can probably expect the long tail of software for digital interaction to allow individuals to choose more details of their own experiences. All of this was initially set in motion with the spread of cell phones but the trend exploded with the interactive power of the "click". Innovations in software changed the nature of the broadcast mindset. Next, as the "me" era very slowly swings back towards an emerging "we" era, concerns about digital privacy will fundamentally change the communities we create while following broad patterns expected with social mood. More empowered and organized digital groups will challenge both enterprises and government where the influence of "me" failed to produce choices.Publish

The "we"era will be segmented. It will be more than a decade long and maybe a few decades in the making as we collectively move towards better answers. It will lag social mood at the larger degrees of trend and to produce a different social environment from today. It will add transparency in some places and take it away in others.

The Discipline of Social Corrections

This imposing painting from Goya's Black period is a favorite. Broadly felt pessimistic uncertainty can influence a lot of change in what markets groups produce over time. Opposite comparisons to (TV dog) We-go can't be avoided.

 

This is a long post that looks at a very broad and trending social theme that will touch all people and every business in years to come. For me, this post highlights the process of social corrections that are important to appreciate, especially if you are a business witnessing your market change in fundamental ways. Large social corrections; start there and work smaller for best results in seeing what really matters to your enterprise. What follows is purely how I see using these ideas, so blame me. 

During a large social corrections one group might be heard to say,

There is nothing wrong with the way things are set up. It is working for many people (and has for a long time). Others should try to see it differently because this way is best for us in the long run

An opposing group might respond with something like,

You're crazy. The number of people not able to work easily (or negatively affected) with the existing structure is growing and it is because the ideals are wrong for the larger group

This conversation is echoed in different sizes and places right now, and more will follow. 

Here are a few summarizing sound bites up front:

1)  what discipline seems to mean (to people, groups, organizations, and government) and what is viewed as acceptable is changing slowly after many decades of opposite momentum.

2)  it's not just more discipline that is needed even if it really seems that way. What's needed is to to recognize that our needs are changing because how we value things & ideas is changing.

3) this observation is easy to agree with but harder to apply to specific circumstances & outcomes. The framework for social mood opens a valuable ongoing discussion.

Below, I touch on three emerging issues where the felt need for discipline is slowly being rethought and expressed. Each should be considered separately and each in different a sized context. If you read one or more of Robert Prechter's books then you've already seen this suggestion made both very generally and toward several centrally important matters.

I think this is a worthwhile discussion to refocus on here generally because eventually, a thin coat of these feelings will be spread everywhere. Many enterprises already see these changing shared values emerging from their market but are confused about how or if to react. 

What Trends Really Matter, To You?

What large trends do you think really matter now? Are you looking at them in a way that will allow for understanding or are you responding to a seemingly chaotic environment? This post will point you to a great resource that will help you see more about what really matters.

When I use the phrase What Really Matters? I am writing here and thinking of something I learned by seeing social trends through the lens of social mood. All social trends eventually correct and many correct out of existence. Rather than beginning by asking which ones will go away forever, I suggest you begin by organizing the challenge in more thorough framework. 

When distinct societies eventually correct longer periods of social expansion, the natural tendency is for groups within to begin focusing on the issues that matter most. This is a natural, necessary group process designed to organize the larger group for more expansion down the road. And since not every social trend expands and corrects in tandem, the divergences are very instructive when seen through social mood. Social corrections, as seen through mood, are one of two basic patterns that affect how and what we create when gathered into groups and markets. (see #2 below for specific examples)

One of the main reasons I began writing this blog (years ago) is because, as seen from this broad perspective,  we've entered a long stretch of socially corrective episodes.  Massive social change is part of this and is likely to last much of the decade.  Is your enterprise geared to adapt to a changed mindset and marketplace?  What are the right strategies in your market to survive the socially corrective patterns that are emerging?  

No one is going to offer you perfect answers to these questions. If they claim to, question them. In the meantime you can arm yourself with organizing knowledge. You can apply this to markets and large groups that matter most to your enterprise or your life.

Begin the year by learning something entirely new.  Teach yourself a great gift.  You will not forget to use it.  Of all the information sources I have cultivated, this one stands alone. 

Very few places offer so much high quality content for free. 

Here are a few basic links that run deep with ideas. Check out the links within the links. I am a reader and subscriber of this work. This post is not an ad.

I witnessed a few different industries I had watched for a long time begin to change forever and needed to find a better way to organize what I was seeing in the context of what had already happened and was continuing. I am certain this can do the same for you if applied the same way. (warning: this isn't about short punchy ideas and answers...this is solid insight that must be earnestly applied in each case.)

So, WRM in the markets and large groups you care about?  Think these questions after you have had a chance to read these links....and think about them for a while.

1. What is social mood?

    1a how it is applied

2. What are some different expressions produced by social mood expressed in various group settings?

      2a....An old post here that tries to reiterate the very basic point how we share our (forward looking)  mood in all social interactions but how aggregate social mood is unique to each society.  Right now, we see hopeful parallels in some mideastern countries but divergences can & will appear quickly across borders based on changing mood and the stability of the societal charter. Authoritarian regimes based on assumed power can crumble very quickly when respected systems are not firmly established. Our founding fathers really were visionary 222 years ago. After these largest chunks of ideas are organized for perspective, we can carefully move into the challenges of individual markets: I created these two very general slides years ago (to use for myself) after reading Pioneering Studies in Socionomics. 

3. How will some big picture cultural issues evolve as social mood changes?

    3a. So how might this control issue change?    Mood re-shapes most critical issues at pivotal times.

All markets see the effects of changing mood incrementally but it does not happen in lockstep. Different trends expand and contract based on the larger rhythms they follow and while social mood shapes it all, it does not control it. Look closer at the markets that matter to you and look also at the markets connected to those. For instance, technology is a quintessential forward looking business that is also, at times, myopic. That is not a criticism. 'They' are constantly reaching out on the edge creating and social corrections in societies just do not offer as supportive an environment of that mindset as do broad periods of social expansion. Incredibly disruptive new tools come about sometimes but remember this: social corrections typically witness swift adjustments and outright changes in perspective.  Technology businesses adapt to shared social values. They follow the collective "us" along one or more steps behind, not ahead of shared values. In this context, looking back to look forward can help us collectively focus on the getting right the things that matter most. Use socionomics as a way to see markets and large groups as a whole that are subject to mood. Just by doing that much you might be able to glimpse ahead of the mass adopting laggards to sense which parts will endure and what (if any) is more likely to be ephemeral. The material at the socionomics institute site may provide you with ideas for leading and lagging indicators in the markets that matter most to you. Don't just scan it. Study it over time and see more about what really matters to you.

Socionomics is the best way I have found to frame the past and provide helpful insight to look forward in different sized chunks of time. This post from 15 months ago is as timely as ever given recent headlines. Data security and privacy is an obvious trending shared value in the US and elsewhere. Free Speech issues in the US and abroad will/are diverging now. The Arab Spring suddenly seems as if it could be an indian summer. As Americans have learned over time, a sound social charter agreement is only one of several parts needed to guard freedoms. These safeguards only frame the conversation and the ongoing discussion continues to be affected by the developing social mood. As always: broad social impulses lead diverse needed changes, and businesses eventually follow us dutifully. Sometimes it really pays off to back up as far as the social charter to see events more clearly. 

The Approaching Public Discussions re: Free Speech & (digital data)Privacy Issues (llink thread at end for these broad issues)

...more on the current digital (social) crosscurrents

The PR machine that is called Apple announced how the PC and Mac are being demoted to "just devices" the other day and that the move to the cloud is now on. Coffee with a friend over the weekend showed that even though he is a contractor for the gov't, he did not fully know what the cloud was yet because his work will not be headed that way but his brand new smart phone will show him quickly. The momentum headed to the cloud in business may be real but are the larger fundamentals in place in order to sustain the kind of anticipated growth?, or is it more hype than reality? Does the quality of hype make reality? (note the mood implication in the question) 

Based on the last post here, you may appreciate how any prediction of a huge move to the cloud would require a presumption that the current expression of positive mood will prevail.  An embedded trend in our move to the cloud that is dependent upon overall mood expressions is also how instead of buying a hard drive now we are predicted to want to rent a hard drive in return for a constant stream of payments in order to have the anywhere convenience and that we will trust the reliability and security of our stuff in the cloud. This kind of decision is mostly a rational (economic benefit) decision but if people around us were to begin openly questioning both the ongoing cost burden and security issues, the trend would see halting progress. IMO Never ending streams of payments for many new basic services built into our outlook is indicative of the larger degree of trend expressions we still see positively influencing actions. Anyone questioning this preconceived idea is foolishly pessimistic, right? 

I introduced what I see as several related macro ideas in the last post and feel obliged to point out how complex corrective social action may not always go as we expect from a glance based on positive or negative mood polarity. This is exactly why deep knowledge of an industry is critical to applying social mood modeling to unfolding trending. For instance, the link I offered for patent issues is such a deep source and he (and many well connected commenters) suggests that patents for software should not exist. That answer cuts both ways just like the opposite does now. There is no substitute for knowing a business deeply and then adding the model that uses mood as an aid. Since that last post I have seen the phrase "economic warfare" used in a few good reads where China openly criticizes Google.  One of the reads clearly suggests that the Chinese were (very indirectly) justifying hacking Google owing to their larger social framework's need for centralized social control...even if that control involves people who are not Chinese.  As a teen in the late 70's I had to use the non-powered grass cutter instead of the gas engine mower for "obvious safety reasons". And while you are simply deciding for yourself if that has any relevance (whatsoever) here remember that when some kinds of social values end, instead of correcting, the creative social energy is redistributed towards other valued social endeavors in the same way we might describe the allocation of capital toward a hot investment. There is an emotional component to all social values and group endeavors and the main question is how can the influence of that part be measured effectively(?).  Digitally, we cannot forget how all social trending respects borders somehow because we are all still branded citizens even if the logo is not always showing and mood in different places is not often perfectly parallel.

Socionomics shows us the weak seams where social change is likely.  Cyberspace is catalyzing these trending influences at such a times as to compliment the larger expression of mood (quickening changes).  In such an environment, seeing farther in a business is best subordinated to contextualizing right now...especially if right now includes some big extremes in social expressions; both here and across the borders. On my other blog related to media business (link in right column) I have emphasized how privacy concerns will grow to influence enterprises. The leap I skipped was how enterprises are likely to have increasing problems as well raising a growing chorus of concern adding significant complexity to any solutions. Suddenly we will hear demands that these new values be addressed because businesses move government faster than people do. The more universal and widespread the problem, the more likely an unexpected solution will come. Not all changes have to be regulatory but with election season around the corner and Congress powerless over larger social issues, that path may be easiest right now. However, at large degrees of trend expression, getting to the better answer will take several years, easily. Social mood clearly shapes our perception of what makes a good idea.

 

Clarifying and Classifying Information Rights = Define those rights, please?

5 recent links now added below...

As I see it, we are approaching a critical need for clarification of the rights conveyed by ownership of ideas and information.  This theme is where privacy issues originate in an age of digital sharing done by people and machine alike. Before we narrow our focus to privacy issues though we must first acknowledge how the related issues are also in critical areas:

Patents The system is a mess. Some enterprises have learned to cheat rely on the advantage of deep pockets in all matters involving litigation and arbitration. ('First, let's see if forgiveness is really needed.') Others believe that software and business method patents stifle innovation. But if the small players innovate better but gain no benefit from doing so where is the incentive? A correction is needed here according to respected sources but what is it? Is it a free market fix or specific rules?

Copyright A real threat to content was the digital video recorder but now, even that concern seems a little pale out on the digital frontier where piracy across international borders is common now. The bigger players are beginning to see how delivering on the idea of consumer's Choice is a path to profitability and security, though there are no complete answers right now.

Enterprise privacy How can a company compete effectively when technical complexity makes stealing information so hard to defend against and even to prove later? This may sound identical to the patent concern above but it encompasses computer hacking community. Consider what we heard about at Lockheed Martin this week. Yes, what we see now is mostly isolated. They key to using this perspective is seeing how that general mindset will eventuallt shift and that will change how enterprises and entire industries behave.

Personal privacy In the 1970's, 80's we were urged to tear up the carbon paper from credit card receipts.  Today, not long after a historic peak in mood we hear about concerns about how all of our digitized information being aggregated and used (most times fairly, and only occasionally illegally with tough results). Behavioral profiling does indeed make the internet better for people but, the slowly evolving question is: do we really know all the concerns we should be aware of and how to work around them? Is that even possible? A conventional mindset would suggest, simply, that this is not a problem now or yet. Social mood shows us, again, how our perception of these potential events will change and as consumers, this will affect the perceived utility of various products and services.

The question behind these concerns is this: What rights come attached to the ownership of ideas (IP) and our various kinds of (personal and enterprise) information? Of course there are laws and rules now but how has the digital environment created the need for updating? How can we assign the right to use our personal information if we do not clearly understand the rules governing these agreements to use our data? Distinctions need to be made. What responsibility do enterprises have to consumers?  Is regulation really where this is headed? What if people began to think?, "If it is not going to be defined clearly in a way that is enforceable by me, then why participate in their desired interfaces that cater to both customer & enterprise convenience?"  The genie isn't going back in the bottle. Is that really true? What if some rules favor those that do revert to old behaviors where control exists? For instance: Will we go back to making phone calls for purchases because web sites have one set of rules and phone calls another? The trade offs I am suggesting here are indeed speculative but all transactions are evaluated and reevaluated as necessary by all market participants. Ok, as of today so far so good, right? My main point, right now, is how correcting social mood will influence this process considerably and it is not hard to see how it may develop directionally. This mindset is essential.

It may be easy to think I am taking this too far...making too much of nothing. The rest of this post provides limited background on my opinion about how if anything, I believe I am underestimating the challenges. So take note. The times they are a changing:

Longer term trending shapes intermediate changes

This post is a timely example of how some short term noise is part of a much longer term process. It's a longer read again, but is worth it.

Making the case for using socionomics in business with an example

Post summary:

Longer term social trend development can be visualized, with the aid of relevant medium term issues that fit in a general hierarchy of social responses experienced (collectively) by large groups as the developing social mood moves through its own cycles. This is not intended to be exacting (like a calendar) but it is much more practical than you may imagine, especially if you are in a particular business and looking for catalyzing events. 

*

The current explosion in privacy concerns has its roots in social mood (very generally) and more recently as experienced back in the early part of last decade between late 2001-2003.That time was an important low in social mood that produced hints about today’s newly observed reactions and beyond. Also important, in a much longer time frame, is how matters related to general privacy are written into our social charter with varying levels of specificity.

One fundamental lesson socionomics offers us in seeing social trends is to always begin from far back as possible to gain a larger perspective on where the trend fits amongst other group processes going on in the society. We are each a product of our individual society and are greatly influenced by the specific concerns and groups processes happening there both now and over longer time frames that we may (individually) only acknowledge generally but not talk about regularly. It is the connection between short term events and long term developments that challenge us all the most but like any long division problem, there are general ways to reduce the problem to the larger influences and then use those to visualize your enterprise in that specific trending depiction.

An example I have monitored follows:

"That will never happen here!"

note** This is a long Post. I make it a practice of leaving everything up after posting it since this blog is published in the spirit of an ongoing journal.  This post reflects on big picture (long term) trending processes as they relate to freedom of expression and privacy issues here in the US. These issues are important to me because I have tried to see how their very probable development will impact other practical matters in areas related to business. The post title reflects on how, sometimes, extremes in the polarity of social trends creates the belief that previous kinds of events, already experienced, will never happen again like that here. Socionomics and social mood is your window into liklihood when you can find and use the correct historical context for specific trending issues.

The most important themes and core values eventually rise to the top during social corrections

post note: I tend to write with more than one audience in mind and because of that feel required to set up observations with general detail, and that is why many posts here run long. If you do not need the detail you might just move to the bold paragraphs. Dave

The events in Japan have been shocking and may well be worse than indicated by news reports lately.

Nothing can dispel horrible loss of life and the environmental concerns except for time, effort, and massive resources. If we look beyond the immediate concerns (and that is no small task) there is a beneficial way to frame these events by looking at the very big picture. Social mood offers a long term lens through which to see unfolding events in Japan and it shapes the long term views in a different light. 

Social mood is a template for seeing typical social trending patterns in periods of positive and negative social mood. By its nature it is big picture thinking.  Wave principle, a technique one level deeper, offers us a way for seeing the broader characteristics of social developments by chunking up periods of time to better see secular (very long term) trends. (observations made using wave principle over many decades eventually gave us socionomic theory-click link on right colum of blog for their site)

The conundrum of what really propels big social trends is why I spent time focusing on seeing what wave principle calls "degree of trend". This phrase, "degree of trend" refers to how waves of generalized mood are counted as they unfold and show us how and where social mood is in its larger trending process (at the present moment). Like Lego's building ever larger scaled patterns using similar shape & pieces, social mood unfolds at multiple degrees of trend and the implication of each of these "degrees" can be observed in various manifestations in a society. In a nutshell: Understanding degree of trend offers us great perspective on what short, medium, long, and very long term actually means when talking about social trending issues. There are no calendars in trending studies, only check marks denoting general events. Likewise, peaks and troughs in social mood at the same degree of trend shows us the kinds of issues (scale) that manifest at different levels of significance (degrees of trend).

How might we view long term events in Japan is to make assumptions and correlations that go beyond the moment?  I saw an article (link at post bottom); it discusses how even before the earthquake, Japanese officials were deeply concerned how social concentrations of various resources in Tokyo made the society extremely vulnerable. The government effort will be enacted to decentralize Japan's vast resources and to also do this in a way that may help rejuvenate lagging rural parts of the country. Apparently, bullet trains are great for commuters but contribute to overloading resources into one location and adding to perceived vulnerability. Keep in mind how changes to how we (collectively) view the always uncertain future, are often very subtle.

Japan, when viewed from a very long term perspective is most likely in the third leg of long term social correction of the previous expansion that peaked in the late 1980's. From this longer perspective, present events are painfully taxing their ongoing efforts and this is certainly not meant to make light of these challenges. Their larger (degree) social correction as a society of a previous long period of social expansion will continue and end sometime in the years ahead. This is a kind of patterned behavior in the history of nations and there are different ways to see these events. Socionomics offers the most flexible and far sighted lens to view these recurring patterns.

Nations can be seen to go through months and years of these social corrections. They present as a kind of national struggle to fix perceived wrongs and accrued imbalances but they have purpose and there is even more purpose in seeing them this way.  Over the time and events accompanying social corrections, nations will focus on the core values that matter most to them and eventually reorganize themselves socially, increasing the order that will later support broad social expansion; when this finally begins in Japan it may well be the beginning of what could prove to be a remarkable series of successes for our cultural world neighbor and friend. why?

Social corrections tend to revisit old problems that were previously left unresolved during other larger periods of social correction. These tend to be the really difficult problems that linger and worsen when unchecked in a society. For instance, in the US we have seen racism come up over and over and that is partly due to our diverse nature and the fact that we are a collection of many smaller regional cultures under one roof. Just look at the smoldering mess in the middle east.  In Japan, one very big issue there is energy. Thirst for energy helped to precipitate WWII when the US infringed upon their easy retrieval of oil from various south Pacific countries. Japan is a nation hungry for energy resources and current events there now are exposing this raw nerve. Who knows? This could turn out to be their strength one day if they plan now to succeed later. As problematic as energy will be in the years just ahead for Japan, I suspect that Americans might testify to how specific societal weaknesses can be turned into expressions of strength when a nation is forced to examine it core shared values over time in a productive manner. Of course, racist attitudes can be slowly changed and energy sources must be discovered but history shows how both kinds of endeavors are often a function of society's discipline and creative capacity.  

In the meantime, Japan must make difficult choices about how to allocate all kinds of social resources so that the country is prepared to experience sustained social expansion in the face of any natural eventuality. (And of course, this is not meant to ignore the critical present tragedy) Population decline is an ongoing issue (and is a symptom of the kinds of social imbalances expected during a very large degree social correction). The US will eventually deal with shades of this same issue as we too will struggle with how to allocate resources in a society that needs to rejuvenate itself and its productive capacity without incurring massive debt.

Social corrections are a societal (group) process that enforces a corrective dynamic to look at critical ways to reorganize social capital that enables later expansion. Of course, societies do come and go but this natural cycle can be seen repeating in ever larger patterns over time and can be seen reliably to cycle back around to old unresolved issues that affect the creative capacity of a nation of people. Earthquakes are also a natural legacy of the Japanese culture. So too is their great need for energy in our modern world. Energy modernization and social resource decentralization are the kind critical themes you would expect see at his degree of trend of Japan's developing social mood. And much as Japan may be seeing dark days right now, they also might soon be working meaningfully towards the resolution of these most critical issues.

What really matters most?  This is the underlying question that naturally brings the big issues to the public focus during social corrections of all sizes. Depending upon the size (degree) of the social correction, the issues brought up will differ or, in the case of natural disasters it can be forced.  And while this generalized observation is worth a more detailed analysis, it is enough for now to point to how this broad set of observations can be used in different ways and even within key industrial verticals in a society. The only requirement to make this happen is to mix a socionomic mindset with deep subject knowledge.

Seeing current events and social change through the lens of the big picture can be very helpful during especially trying times. 

Kan Told To Decentralize Japan on Anihilation Danger to Tokyo Bloomberg 3 11

Social Mood Versus Social Media; how to anticipate granular change

see post note added at end  as well as link previously added  1 10 12

 

Large scale social change is a remarkable thing.

This blog is about a model for seeing change. It is about a tool that offers trending insight to large groups of people. Social mood, the primary social trend, operates at this level and it is here that it can be used to orient us to seeing why groups and our tools experience incremental changes at varying rates.

The socionomic model is a way to organize distinct trends in social change. It allows us to sort seemingly disparate changes based on subtle, shared beliefs that impact behavior. I often refer to these, here, as shared values.  

The mass adoption of social media tools like Facebook and Twitter in the US has had an underlying set of assumptions (shared values) attached, very generally, to these endeavors. It is important to recognize them in case any of them begin changing:  everyone is a potential friend, sharing is good, and more is better have been widely reflected in our US culture for many, many decades. So it's not surprising that when the initial open invite of social platforms turned to active marketing to sustain the impressive growth, we saw these shared values reflected to us in varied messages.

The wonder of our new connectedness using social media is unprecedented but even that becomes boring after hearing it many times. What is important now is how we might use this perspective to witness real granular change in the robust trend called social media.

Borders Matter Even Though Social Mood Crosses Them Like Bad Weather

Social mood is about how large groups of connected people perceive the always uncertain future. Positive mood sees groups more likely to emphasize where they agree, expand, build, and grow. Negative mood manifests overall tendencies to emphasize differences, consolidate previous gains, evaluate, and correct or pare all kinds of "things" and shared values that are perceived to not really matter most (at this moment). This is, of course, very general. Moreover, it is because we humans built a world with digital communications capabilities that social mood is now being conducted though larger & more numerous groups, and across borders and distances never possible before now in all of human history. 

Comparing social mood to systems of moving social weather is perfectly justified on many levels so long as you see it as coming from within and not being an reaction to outside forces.

Yesterday I found myself talking with people in California about the emerging social protest in the upper midwest. As of this morning it seems to have spread to several states.  My point yesterday was that when this "virus" (the word I used yesterday) spreads to California, and it will go there soon, the ramifications of spending decisions will begin to be felt nationwide (and which state you live in will really matter more than ever). I was asked in passing if this is connected to what is happening in the middle east right now.

The best way to describe social mood is as something that emanates from groups of people as it spreads amongst individuals in interconnected groups. It is a naturally occurring predisposition to look toward the uncertainty ahead and share these generalized images with each other. It is out of these forward looking generalizations that we take and share with the many other groups we are connected to, in all areas of our increasingly complex lives, and then use them ourselves to build (or take down) using this emotional foundation.  So, the developing social mood flows across national borders like weather systems and that is something you can count on. There is, however, the different charters of each society of people to consider.  These agreements, like our US Constitution, provide for all kinds of circumstances that arise over time. Some of these charter agreements are built better than others and what seems to be essential these days is for disgruntled groups to be able to participate in the discussions about change. 

So the real difference between what is happening in the middle east and the kinds of social anger we have being discussed in our media this week are the remedies for resolving what really matters most right now. In places where authoritarian rule exists this dynamic may prevail (containing many social impulses)until mood corrects further or it may break the existing system right now and large groups will demand change, even if it is not agreed upon what specific change is needed. Not all periods of social correction produce these dramatic changes in societal charters.  In well chartered societies that are prepared for disagreement, we will see increasingly polarized positions and acts of disobedience spread from group to group and place to place. These actions are meant to test the very structures we built together as we collectively determine what really matters.

It is very common to hear people fondly refer to the demonstrations of the 60s and the other social dynamics back then that created both stark contrasts of shared values and our eventual national meeting of the minds to absorb these differences into our national psyche. What I've seen recently are political acts of disobedience that are unprecedented in my life. They seem to reflect a new normal that is somehow socially ok. Call the President a liar in public? Deny a recent election's results by staging no shows?  Outrage and acts of great defiance within the construct of political discourse is not unprecedented in US history but you have to go farther than the 1960s to see the best parallels (IMO) or the new extremes we will be seeing. I think a better comparison for now is to the 1850s and 1860s when members of Congress still carried knives and sidearms on their person into the chamber, and when fist fights and other violence was not yet only part of history books even though the US was expanding territorially and economically. Various aggregate social behavior measured by our money is obviously not always the best measure of social mood because money can be changed more and faster than the social weather, harming its immediate metering benefit. It is how we use static forms of value (in specific ways)that often give us a good sense of significant periods of mood change. 

PBS produced some fantastic historic perspectives of the period around the civil war. They are really worth watching. The war was the cumulative result of years of social anger and polarity brought on by declining social mood. The purpose of periods of social correction (large declines in social mood) is to correct previous growth so that the social unit is balanced and able to renew growth.   I am not suggesting that we are headed toward a civil conflict now but, if that period reminds us of anything, it is how participation and the willingness to find common ground is at the very root of a diverse and free society.  Acts of defiance may well become common as we are seeing but so often those acting are dismissing the concerns of their very own neighbors.  Social bifurcation of all shapes and sizes will be resolved worked on at some point in the years to come. These imbalances are not always obvious or clear as we are seeing in Wisconsin.  Oftentimes it will take a several passes at the same effort.  The mid nineteenth century was a good example of this kind of a period of social correction and we would all do well to respect the kinds of trending processes we see developing around us now.  This need not be done in a fearful way but, instead, by respecting how we each belong to many diverse groups that cross many (social, state, and international) boundaries and the various interests are not always in agreement between these groups, so we must resolve that patience and compromise are essential in the process. 

Very often I refer to generational influences as an important element in social workouts of big agreements. The problem was that when the 1960s happened, it was all we could see right then as a nation.  The lessons the middle east should be offering Americans today is how the wishes of a silent younger generation cannot be ignored lest we resolve that nothing will be settled right now in our own disagreements. Large and powerful generations of passionate people tend to dominate (as Americans have seen) but if the next generation is somehow ignored before they find their voice, and as agreements are made, then the root system under today's agreements will be destroyed and the next waves of bad social weather will produce catastrophic mud slides of anything made firm today. Count on it.

Our sound bite and slogan culture loves snappy lines so I will leave you with:

"You can pay me now or you can pay me later." is right up there with "Denial is not a river in Africa."

The US cannot afford to be short sighted while making decisions that are needed now. Sooner or later all the aging "me's" are going to have to realize that the math is not working now and that denying it will not make it go away.

Blog note: The redesign of this blog has not been able to move lately. I am working on a temporary solution.  Still there is a lot going on in the world and especially the US right now in terms of incremental movement of trends all around the US. Year to date the busiest trend folders I keep capture social anger, though the issues surrounding trust (in a financial sense) seem ripe for discussion too. I'll leave the financial issues to the EWI gang.  Three+ years ago we saw the same pattern where trust issues remained beneath the mainstream media surface while they rooted slowly in various financial markets. Is that happening again right now? My central point in this post is how mood changes can often be witnessed in geographically diverse places and soon seen to manifest a few miles away. Where we place our focus can often lead to missing key developments in a globally connected community.  How these mood related issues work out depends upon where you are...and while emotional intensity is sure to be a hallmark of this era, if we each remember to breathe and wait before we react, then we will accomplish so much more together than if we give into rage and emotional demonstrations that reflect playground dynamics. If ideas and things and people need tearing down, then let's do it because our values have collectively changed and recognize how compromise is still the best way to exemplify a nation of free people. I think we can all still agree, that really matters.  Dave    

 Ritholtz.com (The Big Picture) posted the link to this Twitterverse network chart seen to be influencing Arab attitudes (interesting visualization)

Exploring The Link Between Social Mood and Consumer Behavior

The Root Trend is three years old this month. It's existed as a sketch on scrap paper for two years before that as a coffee coaster. I posted a similar diagram in the pages section of the blog a while back.

This is the root trend as I see it:

Why it matters is because consumer behavior and social mood are constantly interacting but never more noticeably than during inflection points like the one we are (collectively) navigating now.It's a great time to stop and look closer.

Over these three years there were several important social trending patterns I've noticed the most. The first became its own discussion and is about how media tools are being changed endlessly now by a combination of technology, social momentum, and the and developing social mood. It makes sense to me because I am able to combine three sets of understanding to better see the forces driving  the industry. I call it the (industrial) (r)Evolution of Media. The second is even more general and related to branding issues. Brands, as I see them, can be highly subject to changes in social mood. This is a potentially big topic and another post I continue to work on is how financial brands are emblematic of an important challenge in the branding universe right now. This post is still being written but right now let's look a more immediate brand issue that is reflecting social mood. This thread also touches media issues too so it is timely and relevant. 

I might have taken time to improve the diagram (above) a long time ago but since the trending issues I write about here qualify as the least understood "hobby" I've ever had, I tend to offer only the examples from the outside world that seem to shout the loudest.   I've watched (and am watching) a lot of trends develop with the always developing social mood in mind. It is a remarkable platform from which to appreciate social trending. In this diagram (above), in the disc representing consumer behavior, is what I suspect is a deeper inherent value to those focused on consumer behavior. I have not yet clearly reflected it in the diagram but the point is clear to me. Maybe this developing Face Book thread from the past two weeks will help explain some of what I mean:

Face Book is a social phenomenon because it has positively reflected more than one core social value shared by many people at the time of the mass adoption (these past few years). Up till now, however, it has not reflected the social correction in a very predictable manner.

Then, in the Sunday NYT Magazine 8/30/09, ran a story called Face Book Exodus.  The story was likely chosen because it would be controversial and grow legs as Google searches now reveal how the very idea that Face Book is in decline was being fought, emotionally, by both sides of the argument. There's always an emotional argument in the digital universe.

From a social trending perspective, (using social mood), Face Book is destined to morph into something very different. Why?

Our Affinity for Cycles and seeing Degree of Trend

All of our individual lives are impacted by recurring cycles. Most people rely upon recurring cycles to add structure to their lives. Society, as a unit, certainly does. Awareness of different cycles and rhythms are our first experiences in life. Cycles offer repetition and therefore some amount of certainty in a world that is uncertain as we come into it and grow in it. Our innate tendency when reacting to uncertainty can be seen to manifest as a polarized behavioral pattern, and is at the root of all our reactions and creations as individuals and as a society.

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What I call The Root Trend, is the incremental view of how groups of people collectively respond to uncertainty and in doing so have created all that we have, both individually and collectively. The Root Trend uses a narrow perspective on the broad social process first called 'social mood' by Robert R Prechter in his books and writings as well as the work of Ralph N Elliott years earlier.  Both this developing narrower view offered here as the root trend, and the larger perspective of social mood matters to business because in them are the key to all social trending we see. It is linked to all consumer behavior, all creative endeavors(in the aggregate), investor behavior (broadly), and the markets we touch in the processes of our productive enterprises,(and so much more). As a result of these observations, social mood can tell us a lot about our specific industries, the past, the present and even suggest the shades of gray in the future. In uncertain times this can be seen as a strong tool that transcends doubt. It will not solve problems on its own but, it will add perspective where it is needed. The main value of my added perspective is in how you use this insight...how you apply social mood to businesses and industry in a meaningful process that will foster better (longer term) strategic insight.

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A longer post than usual follows with two key diagrams for understanding a likely link between individual and collective social behavior. These diagrams also offer context for this analysis as well as suggesting a process to explain how social mood manifests in self similar patterns of behavior and in doing so creates discernible patterns within ever larger patterns, each with a specific significance to all social trending we see. This is practical insight and it offers those willing to see, a competitive advantage. If you absorb the broad ideas that follow, it will help build a better appreciation for many posts to this blog that will come later. I hope you'll keep reading. Dave