This post will be split into three parts. It will be easier to digest and sum up this way in a blog format. The parts that matter to different readers will vary but there is some very basic insight here that can be used in different ways:
These ideas are an example of how seeing the root trend can create value in a forward thinking organization. And while I tend to address marketers in this forum, this deeper look at social media may shed light on some desirable evolving core competencies associated with enterprise strategy that have little to do with marketing in an immediate sense.
In a
longer post about media evolution, now listed in the “pages section” of the
blog, I walk through the big picture on how and why media is evolving as it has in the past dozen years. Social
media is not just part of the media trend but is (IMO) the most important
development of the information age so far. If the information age (where we are
at in it now anyway) is about the ubiquity of valuable ideas (content), then social media is
another thread of how these new core sharing technologies will be used (technique) in
smarter ways by the same social kind of forces we attributed to the period known as the industrial
revolution….concentration and specialization of effort. So the conclusion in the media trending post is really a reflection of what is happening socially in the US and especially reflected by the post-Boomer generations.
Social media is a popular subject of blog writers and marketing gurus for how to take advantage of these powerful new developments (social gadgets). (think email, endless websites, IMs, PDAs, blogs, Facebook and sites like it, twitter, and more) Businesses are being urged by all corners of the marketing world to engage with customers and influencers in the realm of social media to create and support new levels of experience. Peter Kim of Forrester writes great ideas about the basic dynamics of how to see and use social media and operate in the digital realm as marketers trying to solve everyday challenges, right now. I enjoy following all of this and also add that I encounter people often who struggle to acknowledge social media and the common thread is age and breadth of use of computers. Despite how it may seem to many, social media has yet to reach a true tipping point in our culture. It may well get another name when it does but , it is coming.
The perspective offered by me through this
blog is deeper and looks at why we do things. At a time when so many new
technological developments seem to be proliferating and complicating business'
competitive landscape, the real question begs in the background: How (and which)
techniques using this new technology should be changing right now for a forward
thinking business? Maybe the answer is in following incremental change. There's a lot to be gained by doing that and maybe , before that,
a long look at the bigger picture is a better first step.
From a chunked up, societal
perspective, What is social media trying to tell us about ourselves? And Where
is it going to take us in the years ahead?
Of all the different methods for forecasting different kinds of trends that I have surveyed, this top down or big-picture-first approach is essential to gathering good perspective.
Here are two general answers to the questions up front because how you get there matters more to developing incremental uses. This entire conversation is worthy of an even further expanded discussion that focuses upon the challenges of a specific vertical (yes, I repeat that in almost every post):
- Social media does not belong to the Boomers even though they remain at the helm of most enterprises and is a clear signal that Millenial youth are defining themselves through action and vision. Social media is about how we’ll organize and get things done differently in the future. This is just one aspect of a new social contract being forged everyday by a new generation with farsighted vision. The changing of the 'generational guard' is an essential dynamic to the larger trending at work.
- The new era of Choice (demonstrated so well by events in and around media) is really about specialization. Social media is about specialization and especially how we’ll use small groups to specialize and improve technique (using information technology). Focus on technique.
Understanding the depth and breadth of these two points will
differentiate marketing success from other outcomes in the years directly
ahead.
The rest of this post will add some background to these generalized big picture thoughts and specifically what I use to generate this big picture. Part 2 will focus on the first bullet point and generational turnover issues. This part can be as shallow or deep, content-wise, as you like. Part 3 will touch the issue of specialization and a few hows and whys that will point in a general direction for those who care about the evolving dynamics of social media. To me, this will be the part with the potential for varied applications but you need to be able to see around these points to be able to see through them (if that makes sense).
This post uses all the very thoughts that sent me looking for (a) root trend five years ago. And even if why I got here seems off point, the connections between two very good (and very different) sets of thinking are what show us that this idea, the root trend, is based upon themes that are actionable now and not just futuristic watercolor painting. The key to higher order application of this work is experience. And since few experienced managers are inclined to invest heavily (and divert their valuable time) for ideas that may seem esoteric (as I'm told by some anyway), let the actions of the Millenial youth be a guide for inspired leaders working with the ideas around what I call the root trend. The direction offered here (offered by this perspective which is really an amalgamation of other insights) and deep experience in a particular business are the key ingredients to seeing "right now". All business verticals, to some extent, are immersed in the rapidly changing benefits of social media and surrounded by a large inflection in social mood. Seeing one without the other is a big disadvantage.
Part of the obvious beauty of the internet is in comparing many ideas quickly and easily. Prices come to mind first but now social meida will show us how we will adapt these ideas to more complicated endeavors.
About five years ago I read a book called the Fourth Turning. It's uses broad brush strokes of history to create a seasonal concept in human endeavor that we seem to follow. So in a nutshell, each season is about one generation and each pattern, or seasonal cycle, takes four generations. In each of these pattern each generation tends to follow an archetypal pattern, repeating general qualities because of their placement in the current cycle. It is an anecdotal account of history and done well. It was written by a team in 1996 and they have both a web site for the book and a consultancy using these ideas.
I read this and thought, "there's no way these smart guys got here and no one else did. There must be a different perspective on the same recurring cycles of history (cycles of people). Anyone who covered even a little of this ground knows I was headed to financial market territory. As it turns out, certain quant analysts understand more about trending than Madison Avenue execs. That was a surprise to me anyway. I never put the two together, even vaguely.
The second and dominant body of work is based upon the ideas of Ralph N. Elliott who was an early accountant turned market technician in later life and from a period that produced many sophisticated insights about behavior in markets...the 1930's. His work was carrier forward by a small group of do-ers and limited to financial market behavior despite Elliott's earlier broader thoughts, until Robert Prechter acquired his entire body of work and began to expand it by looking deeper at trends outside of markets and in groups of people. Socionomics is an expansion of these thoughts and an excellent place to begin. It explains the common link of group behavior in markets and how these ideas can be seen to cross over to group endeavor of all kinds. So while there's a lot of good sources I use regularly to compile these ideas, these two base sources are key to the observations I am making here. I am sure they may also seem obvious on some levels and if it is obvious on some level then why bother with all the detail. I struggled for a long time on this very point as I looked deeper and deeper into learning this and the answer is multifaceted. The main thrust behind why do this(?), what will it do for me(?) is in the incremental small thoughts. I spent a long time looking for big ah-ha's only to realize that the small ideas and pieces of insight are where the gold is...it is also where the satisfaction is for me.
The main positioning statement of the Root Trend is this:
A discussion about how social mood, the primary social trend, shapes both multi-generational trends and the shorter term trends we encounter. This matters to marketers.
So
really, what's being discussed here matters to everyone and I choose to write about the implications to
marketers because I believe that this era specifically, will cause a re-birth
for all marketing endeavors and perspective, and that the deeper insight into
groups of people (audiences of all kinds) will evolve because of the effects
social media is bestowing upon us right now. The root trend is more than a
handy tool in a business' arsenal. It's a strategic imperative as
competition for limited markets will change what we need from our organizations. Recessions cause more than slow downs. Recessions are a key part of the social correction process and that means social capital will be freed up to be later reallocated for whatever general societal expansion is due next, in the really big picture. Social media will play a critical role, only not as a business model. In the meantime, surviving a social correction for many businesses will require new core competencies and many of those will be based upon what is happening in the developing areas of social media/networking.
Part two will be here next week. Dave
Below are a few more useful links on the background insight I use often:
Chart link of generations in history
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