The Root Trend

What Trends Really Matter, To You?

What large trends do you think really matter now? Are you looking at them in a way that will allow for understanding or are you responding to a seemingly chaotic environment? This post will point you to a great resource that will help you see more about what really matters.

When I use the phrase What Really Matters? I am writing here and thinking of something I learned by seeing social trends through the lens of social mood. All social trends eventually correct and many correct out of existence. Rather than beginning by asking which ones will go away forever, I suggest you begin by organizing the challenge in more thorough framework. 

When distinct societies eventually correct longer periods of social expansion, the natural tendency is for groups within to begin focusing on the issues that matter most. This is a natural, necessary group process designed to organize the larger group for more expansion down the road. And since not every social trend expands and corrects in tandem, the divergences are very instructive when seen through social mood. Social corrections, as seen through mood, are one of two basic patterns that affect how and what we create when gathered into groups and markets. (see #2 below for specific examples)

One of the main reasons I began writing this blog (years ago) is because, as seen from this broad perspective,  we've entered a long stretch of socially corrective episodes.  Massive social change is part of this and is likely to last much of the decade.  Is your enterprise geared to adapt to a changed mindset and marketplace?  What are the right strategies in your market to survive the socially corrective patterns that are emerging?  

No one is going to offer you perfect answers to these questions. If they claim to, question them. In the meantime you can arm yourself with organizing knowledge. You can apply this to markets and large groups that matter most to your enterprise or your life.

Begin the year by learning something entirely new.  Teach yourself a great gift.  You will not forget to use it.  Of all the information sources I have cultivated, this one stands alone. 

Very few places offer so much high quality content for free. 

Here are a few basic links that run deep with ideas. Check out the links within the links. I am a reader and subscriber of this work. This post is not an ad.

I witnessed a few different industries I had watched for a long time begin to change forever and needed to find a better way to organize what I was seeing in the context of what had already happened and was continuing. I am certain this can do the same for you if applied the same way. (warning: this isn't about short punchy ideas and answers...this is solid insight that must be earnestly applied in each case.)

So, WRM in the markets and large groups you care about?  Think these questions after you have had a chance to read these links....and think about them for a while.

1. What is social mood?

    1a how it is applied

2. What are some different expressions produced by social mood expressed in various group settings?

      2a....An old post here that tries to reiterate the very basic point how we share our (forward looking)  mood in all social interactions but how aggregate social mood is unique to each society.  Right now, we see hopeful parallels in some mideastern countries but divergences can & will appear quickly across borders based on changing mood and the stability of the societal charter. Authoritarian regimes based on assumed power can crumble very quickly when respected systems are not firmly established. Our founding fathers really were visionary 222 years ago. After these largest chunks of ideas are organized for perspective, we can carefully move into the challenges of individual markets: I created these two very general slides years ago (to use for myself) after reading Pioneering Studies in Socionomics. 

3. How will some big picture cultural issues evolve as social mood changes?

    3a. So how might this control issue change?    Mood re-shapes most critical issues at pivotal times.

All markets see the effects of changing mood incrementally but it does not happen in lockstep. Different trends expand and contract based on the larger rhythms they follow and while social mood shapes it all, it does not control it. Look closer at the markets that matter to you and look also at the markets connected to those. For instance, technology is a quintessential forward looking business that is also, at times, myopic. That is not a criticism. 'They' are constantly reaching out on the edge creating and social corrections in societies just do not offer as supportive an environment of that mindset as do broad periods of social expansion. Incredibly disruptive new tools come about sometimes but remember this: social corrections typically witness swift adjustments and outright changes in perspective.  Technology businesses adapt to shared social values. They follow the collective "us" along one or more steps behind, not ahead of shared values. In this context, looking back to look forward can help us collectively focus on the getting right the things that matter most. Use socionomics as a way to see markets and large groups as a whole that are subject to mood. Just by doing that much you might be able to glimpse ahead of the mass adopting laggards to sense which parts will endure and what (if any) is more likely to be ephemeral. The material at the socionomics institute site may provide you with ideas for leading and lagging indicators in the markets that matter most to you. Don't just scan it. Study it over time and see more about what really matters to you.

The Business of Monetizing Content To Change A Lot During This Social Correction (part 3)

* see post note added at end

Successful enterprises tell us where perceived value was yesterday and today. Consumers point to where it will be tomorrow. How we value things and ideas of all kinds changes as social mood changes...and what we pay attention to changes with social mood. Lately, there has been enormous attention focused upon how companies make money (create value) in the area of content. I point at these endeavors and markets in the broadest possible manner and not towards any one kind of business. 

For five or six years we have seen an extreme experiments in social sharing as social networking moved into the digital ecosystem for the masses. There's no doubt, people want to share aspects of their life. There is also no doubt how this behavior will be subject to shifts in social mood over time. I prefer to point toward the larger shifts able to be seen using social mood because they point to basic structural change in how people want to be served by enterprises. 

The Chief Executive of Forrester, George Colony gave a talk you can go watch here. In 20 minutes he talked about where he sees the internet headed and he does in a way readers here can appreciate. In a nutshell, an excuse me if I abbreviate a great talk entirely too much, the world wide web is likely to be replaced by a wave of app-like ecosystems across the internet. Technology certainly seems to bear that conclusion out but most ordinary people are left wondering what that that really means for everyday folk. Is tech really in charge of where we take the internet or is it something else? In periods of positive or expanding social mood, we might just wait and see. That is much less likely now.

In my very humble opinion, his vision can be guided towards content markets offering a little more meat on the bone by seeing through social mood and how consumers define value (create value) through their changing perceptions and through their behavior.

Apps certainly seem to be the short-hand tech development paradigm that has become mainstream practice today. Apps by their nature, create closed-like systems. I think the idea of Choice matters more. I have defined Choice in many posts over years over at the media blog that was spawned in posts here years ago. You may use the blog search to see just how often and in many ways I have approached it. Choice, in the way I use it as a social trend, is about getting content in the digital environment and how centuries of practice and behavior have been altered in just two decades. Demand has changed and will see enormous new shifts and this will change existing industries even more than we have witnessed so far.

In my thinking, the creation of value is what really matters...and to consumers that means getting Choice, for starters. It really is that simple. As social mood changes Choice will see subtle shifts that could rock many businesses off their business model because the early digital enterprises are simple copies of analog era business practices and do not reflect the massive changes in how transactions for digital content occur. They all ignore Choice in ways that serve their business needs.  This reality has been covered up by large new successful digital companies that appear to have beaten old media companies to the digital frontier. The fight has been portrayed as if it is about old media versus new media. That way of seeing things is all wrong. In fact, it could not be more wrong.

Value to consumers in the digital ecosystem is about Choice and the old way of transacting is increasingly at odds with the perceived expansive freedom associated with the digital frontier. Picture a town with crowded streets, billboards everywhere, salesmen pushing offerings in our face as we stroll along for a view of our new surroundings. Increasingly, the anything is possible perception has been replaced by captive viewing that is increasingly limited because endless space wars are limiting creative potential. You could embrace these new managed and gated communities but they will soon be seen as left wanting of Choice. In short; good intentions driven by greed and chaos*** have taken over the scene for now. Mobile internet has been given to us by forward looking companies but what they really gave us was closed systems, not the open web experience. Users are captive and watched and served what they appear to be needed. Boy, that sounds bad when put that way, right?, but it does not have to be. App ecosystmes can be part of a chapperone style enterprise.  The open web began falling away with mobile development and now the chief of Forrester says it will be a pervasive change. Essentially, in exchange for a little creative code writing we are incrementally handing over our freedom to wander and see whatever we Choose to see and do and instead agree to be served what someone else thinks is best for us. Trust has been extended up till now.

If you are a regular reader that last sentence says it all because trust and social mood are highly correlated during big swings. This issue will be a pivot point in developing digital markets for content.

At the risk of repeating myself, As social mood changes what we pay attention to changes and how we value things of all kinds changes. I am going to cut this post short and offer a single powerful slide I created maybe five years ago when Viacom sued Google for a billion dollars(it seemed like a lot back then).  I saw this change and now I see it even more. It could go right along with what the Forrester Chief suggests is coming. It could completely agree with his vision if only one small change in approach is made. If some app enterprises shift their focus and fully face the consumers they serve....100% and nothing otherwise, then this is exactly what is going to result in an explosion of newly created value. Consumer facing enterprises could reset the web and all high quality content enterprises. 100% consumer facing enterprises could produce a new currency to redefine value in a way long overdue.  In order for that to happen some gargantuan shifts will have to happen. There will be winners, losers, and those willing to recognize social change as it is happening. If you ever got caught in a rip tide or found a useful thermal of air, then you know they are invisible without some good idea of how to identify them at the right time and place. Social mood makes these events appear differently.  To me, this is the future of content of all kinds as we work through this giant social correction of previous periods of expansion. Trust the customer consuming content first and only and they will trust you. That is the singular basis of this idea working. The rest is just tech details (and a lot of social change):

 

* I will be updating this post over holiays and consolidating it with the two previous posts on the same topic and shrinking it all down to a smaller profile. About Face Part 1 (a simple explanation), About Face Part 2 (A Basic Structural Change)  The point of sharing these ideas is less about making a prediction and more about suggetsing where the big influences will shape ongoing events so that we can use existing momentum to fully exercise the freedom to be informed and to inform. I do not take this for granted especially in light of the trends I propose will drive these changes.

*** to be clear: greed and market chaos are both absolutely necessary and good. Any seeming opinion about the atmosphere (in that paragraph) was my own sense of consumerism and should be considered separately. Social mood suggests how we should see all market particpants as part of the trends being expressed and the main thing I am trying to highlight in this paragraph is how diverging shared values create images like those I attempted to capture. Our shared history offers many episodes of social expression extremes that are later sharpy diverted. Many.  Seeing through social mood may allow us to consider trend directionality from the standpoint of specific changing behaviors. Sharing will not stop but some expressions will change a lot as mood corrects.  This is where and how the larger forecast matters most.  Once you know how to match up these forecasts (large chunks) with your market(s) you can use deep market knowledge to see both confirming and divergent issues. I submit that this kind of "seeing" is a zone of competitive advantage and why this is valuable.    

 

 

Part II to the post About-Face is now posted here. Part one, below, was intentionally succinct. Part II offers some detail on how I see current trending opening a brand new divide in digital markets. This view presents both opportunity and obstacle for enterprises. This follow-up post, and Part I, has been my attempt to demonstrate how social mood can help see into big challenges in specific markets. I began considering the case of markets for content here several years ago when Viacom and Google first clashed legally over links and clicks(page down to oldest posts). At the time I likened it to the range wars on the old western frontier that led to fences and legislatures. Their legal face off lead to the big idea in these two current posts and will, in time, affect everyone. Social trends lead while businesses, industry, and government follow us where we are going. There is a lot of value in seeing trends from this perspective and it can help make sense of change in any market.

Socionomics is the best way I have found to frame the past and provide helpful insight to look forward in different sized chunks of time. This post from 15 months ago is as timely as ever given recent headlines. Data security and privacy is an obvious trending shared value in the US and elsewhere. Free Speech issues in the US and abroad will/are diverging now. The Arab Spring suddenly seems as if it could be an indian summer. As Americans have learned over time, a sound social charter agreement is only one of several parts needed to guard freedoms. These safeguards only frame the conversation and the ongoing discussion continues to be affected by the developing social mood. As always: broad social impulses lead diverse needed changes, and businesses eventually follow us dutifully. Sometimes it really pays off to back up as far as the social charter to see events more clearly. 

The Approaching Public Discussions re: Free Speech & (digital data)Privacy Issues (llink thread at end for these broad issues)

post note: This is posted on the media blog (link to the right here) but the trend point makes more sense here as it is something I have watched and considered for a long time.

Choice is an obvious general trend that reflects how the nature of demand for content is changing because of the digital environment after a very long time, (centuries?), of the opposite circumstances through the various media. It has always helped me to see Choice as a very large social pivot point relative to technology and content; affecting our use of media in many ways.  Social shows us it goes beyond scheduling and will have more dynamics to express.  Add the context of changing social mood and the potential for this trend to impact commerce broadly and in ways not previously imagined is worth noting. That stated, what follows is purely my opinion.

About-Face

Does your business sell advertising to generate revenue?

Is that dynamic creating a conflict with primary customers in order to serve
secondary customers? Who are your primary customers, exactly? Are they
consumers or other businesses?

The time has come to make clear distinctions between customers, their needs
and values, and secondary constituencies.

Why now?

The market dynamic that can be called Choice has taken us here along with
social mood. The long era of broadcast effectively began closing with the
advent of digital networks of connected people. The result, the market
dynamic I call Choice, will now increasingly require a distinction to be
made by enterprises. This would not be necessary in a world without Choice.

Businesses will not change to mirror this overnight but because the nature
of some transactions has changed forever, we are now slowly moving to this
end.

The consistent expression of Choice will be impacted by social mood and
result in changes to commerce requiring many new kinds of specialization.

So, the question is likely: which customer will you decide to face down and
which will you serve by aligning your world view (and actions) with theirs?

The need to ask this question is new because just as the times change, so
does how we value things and ideas of all kinds. Choice will eventually
require a decision by content oriented enterprises (and others too) that
have multiple kinds of customers with conflicting demands. Glossy ideals
about anticipating digital customer's needs better will be re-framed inside
of this new movement. (It may seem early for this larger trend but, it is
morning.)

To truly know your primary customer and to engage them in a manner that
serves you both well, requires trust be established and maintained without
the help of legalese. Choice will, in the changing light of shared social
values, force businesses to make important distinctions.

In coming years markets will demand that enterprises choose which customer
to face. There will be opportunity and limitations in either choice because
this is a fundamental change that will shape other decisions and business
dynamics.

If the choices your enterprise makes puts it at odds with the primary
customers then,

About-Face!

This first era of social reaction in the digital age will be different than
many expect but do not think this is an argument about one kind of company.
The digital ecosystem will interact with changing social perceptions and shared values to force incremental & ongoing specialization upon the entire business model.

Last thought: on the media blog, I posted this under the trending category, "permission and accountability".  Consider that a primary thread developing inside of Choice. 

current links in this thread of trending after the jump...Last add 11 16 11

Back on Dec 1st, 2010 I posted this about how which State you live in will really matter. I've populated a number of links following that thread at the bottom of the post since then. The trend of state by state challenges is very clear as is the increasing polarity of state politics in finding solutions to gaping holes in finances. Today's NYT article link about California's southern counties considering cutting ties as well as Monday's issue discussing Minnesota's current gov. shutdown is posted there now. Will this social correction in the US see the division of any states in the years ahead? Large social corrections are capable of shrinking borders. Just look at Europe's map a few hundred years ago and now. Increasingly, what really matters to individuals will be closer to home and have the potential to change how we live everyday. What used to be a lifestyle and physical surroundings kind of decision has already changed for many since the housing crisis. I will update this trend post soon.  

Who is Able or Allowed To See Into The Cloud?

9 27 11 The challenges of cloud security below 10,000 feet

8 10 11 a more sophisticated set of thoughts on business in the cloud. The real guts of this discussion is in the comments. This is an unuaually good blog for tech issues and you can see social mood dynamics expressed readily.   

7 29 11this great read was forwarded more than a week ago and about half way through addresses cloud issues in a larger context. You can easily see how social mood will impact the challenges discussed in this New Scientist article.

 

Are you living, working, or spending any time in the cloud these days?  Not many months ago most people would have been confused by that question but new technology is quickly accepted these days. 

Let's consider social mood relative to this emergent trend for a few thoughts.

The cloud is a potential means for everyone to use inexpensive processor chips in their gadgets and not be weighed down by bulky and expensive memory needs. This, in theory should free us all up to be more connected for more tasks in more ways to improve life. And if this cloud trend holds social traction, then the possibilities in developing economies is beyond beyond because many do not have a choice now (like Americans) between local storage devices, large screens, lap tops etc. or, the cloud.  All this requires is connectivity and a low priced gadget for great results. I see this trend and I see two critical aspects. First there's productivity expanding for almost everyone using this new universal storage. I also see, as time passes, more uncertainty and changing attitudes toward the keepers of our data and the overall utility of using the cloud.

Here's the social mood component:

What happens with our data?  Our pics, our notes to people in all of our circles?...Our ideas, our actions, and our plans?  The first thing we've seen cloud businesses address was security and, the first news stories about cloud services we're seeing are data security related. As an observer I try not to stir the pot of negative opinion on such matters ...especially since the utility of cloud services is understated when called incredible.

however...

In an always uncertain world the certainty of a professional cloud server farm being there for me is a great thought.  But what about big brother and all the data starved web businesses out there without a clear sense of right and wrong until they are slapped? (aka: "ask for forgiveness not...") Ok, that sounds paranoid just reading it back but the headlines this week alone justifies some of the concern. The question worth considering: Is your disposition biased toward comfort using the cloud for all manner of data? (business or personal)? or is it somewhat contained by 'let's wait and see'? Is it more negative than that? What are your various social groups feeding back to you on issues like this? It is very early yet but many people in business have already experienced the utility.

Social mood is a giant moving average of attitudes that are directionally predictive and it is like a dip stick of broad social action at any one moment. That's how I visualize it in order not to get stuck in the concerns of individuals and think in the realm of larger groups (and markets).

The uncertainty associated with a social shift to the cloud is a perfect opportunity to assess mood in one specific social dynamic right now and in the months ahead too.

As discussed here many times; there are (right now) conflicting examples of mood out in all societies that represent some degree of the emergent pattern in aggregate (societal) mood. My guess is that adoption and use of the cloud will reflect shorter cycles in mood as opposed to the cycles represented by longer social trends talked about here. The very appearance of the cloud is a result of a longer term social trend.  My guess is that cloud services will be impacted by changing social mood and manifest shorter swings (even reverses) in participation and momentum as a concurrent indication of mood. Why do I think this?  Because in the social correction of late 2008 & early 2009 the types of everyday concerns and complaints that manifested were rooted in seemingly practical matters affected by a rapidly changing social environment.  I am not suggesting the demise of the cloud but momentum could be reversed so much that it seems inevitable. The cloud is just getting started but it seems to have begun with very little clear market dictated definitions. Social affirmation of expectations using the cloud is the next step and that will be more complicated as it will most likely happen in the context of a deepening social correction. For now, the benefit to to industry of mass adoption of the cloud is incremental purchases of many more small processors and services. To anyone who appreciates technology the cloud is not a surprise but to most consumers, it was a fresh use of digital ecosystems to make many tasks easier. In a nutshell, the cloud trend is reflective of a larger positive social trend. It is building something new and expanding digital markets.

My main point now is how I will be watching and (somewhat) expecting to see multiple examples of how negative social mood is expressed toward cloud services in a concurrent expression of mood as it corrects in the years directly ahead. Like all great new ideas and tools,(think: search engines)  this will serve to define what and how the cloud should be used & managed. Obvious and almost expected stories will emerge that instruct us about considered use of cloud services and related responsibility of cloud enterprises.  Some uses are a natural and some uses will be sharply questioned. The first link below should begin to shape thinking on what kind of data should not be stored in the cloud. The second highlights ambiguous societal borders in the digital ecosystem and get us to think about how mood has the potential to crash through those gateways.

Let's watch together. Based on headlines this week, we ought to consider how data security is bumping into information needs of competitive interests and how social boundaries are not fully established even if we think they should be.  So, how can any one cloud customer be sure that they are not being bumped down some priority list of our cloud operator?  If phones can be hacked so too can cloud accounts.  Are cloud companies going to be as responsible as credit card companies to their customers?  The ongoing digital aggregation of our various data has produced an alternate potential that can be accessed by many technologically savvy outside interests. The cloud is a fantastic idea and a great example of a lagging expression of a long term peak in mood at the largest degree of trend.  It is, however, a sharp tool that can and will cut both ways.  In the meantime we will see rules and norms be developed by noisy users, especially if overall mood expressions turn negative in the months ahead.  The social development of the cloud will be governed by short term mood. I expect the cloud to survive but if the definition of utility includes security, does that suggest positive potential or negative longer term potential?  Social mood will play a role in how we see, use, and value the cloud in both the short term and the medium term.  (These links are both quick and worthy reads)

Security Issues Cast Cloud over Online Backup Services

Microsoft Admits Patriot Act Can Access EU Cloud Data

Monitoring social tools for specific kinds of change

Brands and social media tools are being impacted by changing social mood. If the pace of social change is to pick up considerably then these two are worth considering together for a few minutes.

An old thread not addressed here lately revolves around brands...specifically, brands in crisis during a social correction. The subject has been sitting out this cycle of expanding (positive) mood. Moreover, I have backed off the Toyota brand issue for what are dual reasons of both timing and respect. I did see this week that a key trial (related to the unintended acceleration issue) has been scheduled for 2013. That timing is more than a little suggestive though not surprising as armies of lawyers prepare for war.

What is not lost on me is how this general idea about brands might seem specific to a few. Yes, a few brands are likely to be eviscerated by a prolonged social correction. Likewise, this view is a heads up from a broader place to suggest how the social utility of brand images may shift again in a deep social correction.

In a world increasingly influenced by highly efficient text messaging and tweets of 140 characters, the value of branding references is being extended as a social tool.  And like all behaviors of increasing frequency and overall participation, the benefits may cut sharper as well as the drawbacks.  Moreover, the resumption of a corrective mood trend will magnify the need for caution if you care for a brand because of changing perceptions. When you skip beyond present speculation regarding recovery and double dips, bear market or bull market, you can look around and see evidence of many corrective social trends that are expressed in polarities over very long periods of time...much longer than this current 28 month social rally.  The implication is that even though many social trending dynamics we see are lagging indications of present mood, the positive swing we are (collectively) creating now is not likely to completely reverse these individual (longer) trending expressions of corrective mood. Of course, observations about smaller social expressions (trends) do not guarantee a larger period of social correction. The point here is not to use circular reasoning. The goal we should aim for is to organize a hierarchy of social expressions and compare them and note critical contrasts.

During a prolonged social correction where smaller units of association are increasingly expressed in diverse ways, many brands will undergo a transformation reflective of our larger social correction. Like the twists and turns in business, most of these will not be about endings or beginnings. It is about adaptation to changing social circumstances that provide for both opportunity and setbacks because how we value things changes as social mood changes.  Language and money both offer excellent tools for various estimations of changing social value but can these newer media (listening) tools be used to distinguish important structural shifts in shared values? What might help us see specific geographic challenges approaching? How can these new social listening tools be adapted to distinguish signal and noise in a time of rapid social change?

...more on the current digital (social) crosscurrents

The PR machine that is called Apple announced how the PC and Mac are being demoted to "just devices" the other day and that the move to the cloud is now on. Coffee with a friend over the weekend showed that even though he is a contractor for the gov't, he did not fully know what the cloud was yet because his work will not be headed that way but his brand new smart phone will show him quickly. The momentum headed to the cloud in business may be real but are the larger fundamentals in place in order to sustain the kind of anticipated growth?, or is it more hype than reality? Does the quality of hype make reality? (note the mood implication in the question) 

Based on the last post here, you may appreciate how any prediction of a huge move to the cloud would require a presumption that the current expression of positive mood will prevail.  An embedded trend in our move to the cloud that is dependent upon overall mood expressions is also how instead of buying a hard drive now we are predicted to want to rent a hard drive in return for a constant stream of payments in order to have the anywhere convenience and that we will trust the reliability and security of our stuff in the cloud. This kind of decision is mostly a rational (economic benefit) decision but if people around us were to begin openly questioning both the ongoing cost burden and security issues, the trend would see halting progress. IMO Never ending streams of payments for many new basic services built into our outlook is indicative of the larger degree of trend expressions we still see positively influencing actions. Anyone questioning this preconceived idea is foolishly pessimistic, right? 

I introduced what I see as several related macro ideas in the last post and feel obliged to point out how complex corrective social action may not always go as we expect from a glance based on positive or negative mood polarity. This is exactly why deep knowledge of an industry is critical to applying social mood modeling to unfolding trending. For instance, the link I offered for patent issues is such a deep source and he (and many well connected commenters) suggests that patents for software should not exist. That answer cuts both ways just like the opposite does now. There is no substitute for knowing a business deeply and then adding the model that uses mood as an aid. Since that last post I have seen the phrase "economic warfare" used in a few good reads where China openly criticizes Google.  One of the reads clearly suggests that the Chinese were (very indirectly) justifying hacking Google owing to their larger social framework's need for centralized social control...even if that control involves people who are not Chinese.  As a teen in the late 70's I had to use the non-powered grass cutter instead of the gas engine mower for "obvious safety reasons". And while you are simply deciding for yourself if that has any relevance (whatsoever) here remember that when some kinds of social values end, instead of correcting, the creative social energy is redistributed towards other valued social endeavors in the same way we might describe the allocation of capital toward a hot investment. There is an emotional component to all social values and group endeavors and the main question is how can the influence of that part be measured effectively(?).  Digitally, we cannot forget how all social trending respects borders somehow because we are all still branded citizens even if the logo is not always showing and mood in different places is not often perfectly parallel.

Socionomics shows us the weak seams where social change is likely.  Cyberspace is catalyzing these trending influences at such a times as to compliment the larger expression of mood (quickening changes).  In such an environment, seeing farther in a business is best subordinated to contextualizing right now...especially if right now includes some big extremes in social expressions; both here and across the borders. On my other blog related to media business (link in right column) I have emphasized how privacy concerns will grow to influence enterprises. The leap I skipped was how enterprises are likely to have increasing problems as well raising a growing chorus of concern adding significant complexity to any solutions. Suddenly we will hear demands that these new values be addressed because businesses move government faster than people do. The more universal and widespread the problem, the more likely an unexpected solution will come. Not all changes have to be regulatory but with election season around the corner and Congress powerless over larger social issues, that path may be easiest right now. However, at large degrees of trend expression, getting to the better answer will take several years, easily. Social mood clearly shapes our perception of what makes a good idea.

 

Clarifying and Classifying Information Rights = Define those rights, please?

5 recent links now added below...

As I see it, we are approaching a critical need for clarification of the rights conveyed by ownership of ideas and information.  This theme is where privacy issues originate in an age of digital sharing done by people and machine alike. Before we narrow our focus to privacy issues though we must first acknowledge how the related issues are also in critical areas:

Patents The system is a mess. Some enterprises have learned to cheat rely on the advantage of deep pockets in all matters involving litigation and arbitration. ('First, let's see if forgiveness is really needed.') Others believe that software and business method patents stifle innovation. But if the small players innovate better but gain no benefit from doing so where is the incentive? A correction is needed here according to respected sources but what is it? Is it a free market fix or specific rules?

Copyright A real threat to content was the digital video recorder but now, even that concern seems a little pale out on the digital frontier where piracy across international borders is common now. The bigger players are beginning to see how delivering on the idea of consumer's Choice is a path to profitability and security, though there are no complete answers right now.

Enterprise privacy How can a company compete effectively when technical complexity makes stealing information so hard to defend against and even to prove later? This may sound identical to the patent concern above but it encompasses computer hacking community. Consider what we heard about at Lockheed Martin this week. Yes, what we see now is mostly isolated. They key to using this perspective is seeing how that general mindset will eventuallt shift and that will change how enterprises and entire industries behave.

Personal privacy In the 1970's, 80's we were urged to tear up the carbon paper from credit card receipts.  Today, not long after a historic peak in mood we hear about concerns about how all of our digitized information being aggregated and used (most times fairly, and only occasionally illegally with tough results). Behavioral profiling does indeed make the internet better for people but, the slowly evolving question is: do we really know all the concerns we should be aware of and how to work around them? Is that even possible? A conventional mindset would suggest, simply, that this is not a problem now or yet. Social mood shows us, again, how our perception of these potential events will change and as consumers, this will affect the perceived utility of various products and services.

The question behind these concerns is this: What rights come attached to the ownership of ideas (IP) and our various kinds of (personal and enterprise) information? Of course there are laws and rules now but how has the digital environment created the need for updating? How can we assign the right to use our personal information if we do not clearly understand the rules governing these agreements to use our data? Distinctions need to be made. What responsibility do enterprises have to consumers?  Is regulation really where this is headed? What if people began to think?, "If it is not going to be defined clearly in a way that is enforceable by me, then why participate in their desired interfaces that cater to both customer & enterprise convenience?"  The genie isn't going back in the bottle. Is that really true? What if some rules favor those that do revert to old behaviors where control exists? For instance: Will we go back to making phone calls for purchases because web sites have one set of rules and phone calls another? The trade offs I am suggesting here are indeed speculative but all transactions are evaluated and reevaluated as necessary by all market participants. Ok, as of today so far so good, right? My main point, right now, is how correcting social mood will influence this process considerably and it is not hard to see how it may develop directionally. This mindset is essential.

It may be easy to think I am taking this too far...making too much of nothing. The rest of this post provides limited background on my opinion about how if anything, I believe I am underestimating the challenges. So take note. The times they are a changing:

Links for the recent posts from the media blog are now in the nearest right column here (just below the fold).

I spun out the discussion thread here a while back about how media will continue to transform rapidly, and how directionally, some of the key changes are signaled by a combination of historic context and social mood. So as the media topic became a separate blog I have been careful not to let the discussion of social mood bog down the posts with too much explanation and simply offer it as an example of how the socionomic model might contextualize current events and beyond in any industry. If you are involved in a business that is affected by big social changes, knowledge of the socionomic model is critical insight.

Focus and brevity in any kind of content is a must, these days especially.  The exercise, for me, is slowly sharpening a way to use the socionomic model to form a view of the core industry of media more clearly in terms of big social trends that matter most. My hope is that eventually the general example will be a useful beyond media business issues.

The latest media post is a result of sensing one step into the early stages of the social trend towards privacy concerns growing within a background waxing social correction. More than one interesting email link this week suggested most people say they are concerned about privacy and few actually behave as if they truly are concerned much at all. I wonder...what percent of people really know what to do about it?  It appears we are discovering quickly, across several disciplines, how to better gauge the developing social mood through respondent surveys. The frequency and overall quality of surveys wishing to measure social behavioral nuances has become increasingly important. This last observation, no matter how obvious, will interact with several big trends to produce the end I suggest in that latest post. Critical adjustments (compromises) alter entire industries at critical junctions, sometimes slowly and sometimes very quickly.  People do it to get what they need. Enterprises do it to make a profit....and short dated representatives love to jump in before elections saving citizens from reading the instruction manuel. 

Longer term trending shapes intermediate changes

This post is a timely example of how some short term noise is part of a much longer term process. It's a longer read again, but is worth it.

Making the case for using socionomics in business with an example

Post summary:

Longer term social trend development can be visualized, with the aid of relevant medium term issues that fit in a general hierarchy of social responses experienced (collectively) by large groups as the developing social mood moves through its own cycles. This is not intended to be exacting (like a calendar) but it is much more practical than you may imagine, especially if you are in a particular business and looking for catalyzing events. 

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The current explosion in privacy concerns has its roots in social mood (very generally) and more recently as experienced back in the early part of last decade between late 2001-2003.That time was an important low in social mood that produced hints about today’s newly observed reactions and beyond. Also important, in a much longer time frame, is how matters related to general privacy are written into our social charter with varying levels of specificity.

One fundamental lesson socionomics offers us in seeing social trends is to always begin from far back as possible to gain a larger perspective on where the trend fits amongst other group processes going on in the society. We are each a product of our individual society and are greatly influenced by the specific concerns and groups processes happening there both now and over longer time frames that we may (individually) only acknowledge generally but not talk about regularly. It is the connection between short term events and long term developments that challenge us all the most but like any long division problem, there are general ways to reduce the problem to the larger influences and then use those to visualize your enterprise in that specific trending depiction.

An example I have monitored follows:

Socionomics; the science of understanding social change is gaining momentum

This past weekend was the first ever Socionomics Summit in Atlanta.  A list of exceptional speakers drew strong attendance and gave everyone a lot of big ideas to consider.  The event was professionally staged and videotaped so I will briefly mention the speakers below and encourage anyone interested in understanding social change to get the DVD as soon as it becomes available. It was that good of an event.

The Socionomics Summit demonstrated that critical momentum is being achieved across a diverse field of applications. A great lineup of cutting edge presenters talked about how this work has taken them far away from usual approaches to see the bigger ideas that  matter, especially right now.

The attendees I sat with included a few entrepreneurs, a tech designer, a code writer, financial professionals, and a couple of people just fascinated by the new science of understanding social change.

Here is a link to an expanded list of the ten presenters and Robert Prechter too.

The day was not a "how to" or a 101 discussion of socionomic trending and that is exactly why it was so  good. If you are willing to learn this unique model on you own by reading a very readable book (or starting with the journal linked in the right column here), then you can show up for an event like this prepared to be inspired.

Dr. John Casti asked us to consider the role of complexity in extreme events and if you've read his book, Mood Matters, then you appreciate how his unique perspective on the big picture is very important right now.

It was very appropriate to follow his ideas with Euan Wilson's (researcher with The Socionomics Institute) discussion about historical events and offered perspective that is both very interesting and timely...no matter where you live. His opening "what if" question is not just profound, it is bound to get answered sometime soon.

Dr. Ken Olsen from Fort Hayes State University asked some very basic and important questions about social mood itself and why it works as it does. He also offered some fundamental ways to see behavior.  He inspired a few conversations that day. 

Kevin Depew of Minyanville informed and entertained us with Zombinomics and the broad theme in his presentation was echoed a few times later that day.  Then after lunch Dr. Eric Gilbert from the Georgia Institute of Technology talked about our emotions and how they clearly influence our choices and actions in the real world. This was a great lead to the following discussions where EWI's Peter Kendall and Mark Galasiewski talked about two very different kinds of mass trending that follow the waves of mood as seen in the senior sociometer in a society.  These correlations go beyond interesting and suggest ways to look for your own solutions to trending challenges. 

The next two presentations were sophisticated examples of how basic behavior is crucial to understanding both the bigger picture, and also useful for complex predictions.  Scott Reamer's (from Chora Capital) Unified Theory discussion was brilliant and Johan Bollen & Huina Mao (Indiana University) talk about a very specific modeling project using Twitter data that was mentioned in the news months ago.  Johan and Huina are actively using aggregate tweet data to create a working predictive model.

Matt Lampert (a researcher for The Socionomics Institute) gave a great forward view of ideas and directions for predictive research that are underway. Both Matt and Euan emphasized how this work allows individuals to take control of how big social change affects your life.

Robert Prechter returned to close out the formal discussions, take questions, and offer his thoughts on being disciplined about not muddling up socionomic thinking with ordinary causation. It was a very practical note to close the first annual summit. So many people I talked with that day rarely had occasion to engage in discussions about social mood with like minded people. The day offered brilliant ideas and examples as well as some reminders about traps to avoid.  The staff at the Socionomics Institute and EWI offered a shinning example of what is possible as we move forward using socionomics. And while the combination of presentations that day was truly impressive, it was just as possible to benefit from the engagement with a very unique audience of attendees.  I am guessing that many people who were there will want the DVD too because there was so much good insight that it was hard to take it all in even by taking good notes. That is a great reason to not miss the next Socionomic Summit gathering.    

 

 

 

 

"That will never happen here!"

note** This is a long Post. I make it a practice of leaving everything up after posting it since this blog is published in the spirit of an ongoing journal.  This post reflects on big picture (long term) trending processes as they relate to freedom of expression and privacy issues here in the US. These issues are important to me because I have tried to see how their very probable development will impact other practical matters in areas related to business. The post title reflects on how, sometimes, extremes in the polarity of social trends creates the belief that previous kinds of events, already experienced, will never happen again like that here. Socionomics and social mood is your window into liklihood when you can find and use the correct historical context for specific trending issues.

The most important themes and core values eventually rise to the top during social corrections

post note: I tend to write with more than one audience in mind and because of that feel required to set up observations with general detail, and that is why many posts here run long. If you do not need the detail you might just move to the bold paragraphs. Dave

The events in Japan have been shocking and may well be worse than indicated by news reports lately.

Nothing can dispel horrible loss of life and the environmental concerns except for time, effort, and massive resources. If we look beyond the immediate concerns (and that is no small task) there is a beneficial way to frame these events by looking at the very big picture. Social mood offers a long term lens through which to see unfolding events in Japan and it shapes the long term views in a different light. 

Social mood is a template for seeing typical social trending patterns in periods of positive and negative social mood. By its nature it is big picture thinking.  Wave principle, a technique one level deeper, offers us a way for seeing the broader characteristics of social developments by chunking up periods of time to better see secular (very long term) trends. (observations made using wave principle over many decades eventually gave us socionomic theory-click link on right colum of blog for their site)

The conundrum of what really propels big social trends is why I spent time focusing on seeing what wave principle calls "degree of trend". This phrase, "degree of trend" refers to how waves of generalized mood are counted as they unfold and show us how and where social mood is in its larger trending process (at the present moment). Like Lego's building ever larger scaled patterns using similar shape & pieces, social mood unfolds at multiple degrees of trend and the implication of each of these "degrees" can be observed in various manifestations in a society. In a nutshell: Understanding degree of trend offers us great perspective on what short, medium, long, and very long term actually means when talking about social trending issues. There are no calendars in trending studies, only check marks denoting general events. Likewise, peaks and troughs in social mood at the same degree of trend shows us the kinds of issues (scale) that manifest at different levels of significance (degrees of trend).

How might we view long term events in Japan is to make assumptions and correlations that go beyond the moment?  I saw an article (link at post bottom); it discusses how even before the earthquake, Japanese officials were deeply concerned how social concentrations of various resources in Tokyo made the society extremely vulnerable. The government effort will be enacted to decentralize Japan's vast resources and to also do this in a way that may help rejuvenate lagging rural parts of the country. Apparently, bullet trains are great for commuters but contribute to overloading resources into one location and adding to perceived vulnerability. Keep in mind how changes to how we (collectively) view the always uncertain future, are often very subtle.

Japan, when viewed from a very long term perspective is most likely in the third leg of long term social correction of the previous expansion that peaked in the late 1980's. From this longer perspective, present events are painfully taxing their ongoing efforts and this is certainly not meant to make light of these challenges. Their larger (degree) social correction as a society of a previous long period of social expansion will continue and end sometime in the years ahead. This is a kind of patterned behavior in the history of nations and there are different ways to see these events. Socionomics offers the most flexible and far sighted lens to view these recurring patterns.

Nations can be seen to go through months and years of these social corrections. They present as a kind of national struggle to fix perceived wrongs and accrued imbalances but they have purpose and there is even more purpose in seeing them this way.  Over the time and events accompanying social corrections, nations will focus on the core values that matter most to them and eventually reorganize themselves socially, increasing the order that will later support broad social expansion; when this finally begins in Japan it may well be the beginning of what could prove to be a remarkable series of successes for our cultural world neighbor and friend. why?

Social corrections tend to revisit old problems that were previously left unresolved during other larger periods of social correction. These tend to be the really difficult problems that linger and worsen when unchecked in a society. For instance, in the US we have seen racism come up over and over and that is partly due to our diverse nature and the fact that we are a collection of many smaller regional cultures under one roof. Just look at the smoldering mess in the middle east.  In Japan, one very big issue there is energy. Thirst for energy helped to precipitate WWII when the US infringed upon their easy retrieval of oil from various south Pacific countries. Japan is a nation hungry for energy resources and current events there now are exposing this raw nerve. Who knows? This could turn out to be their strength one day if they plan now to succeed later. As problematic as energy will be in the years just ahead for Japan, I suspect that Americans might testify to how specific societal weaknesses can be turned into expressions of strength when a nation is forced to examine it core shared values over time in a productive manner. Of course, racist attitudes can be slowly changed and energy sources must be discovered but history shows how both kinds of endeavors are often a function of society's discipline and creative capacity.  

In the meantime, Japan must make difficult choices about how to allocate all kinds of social resources so that the country is prepared to experience sustained social expansion in the face of any natural eventuality. (And of course, this is not meant to ignore the critical present tragedy) Population decline is an ongoing issue (and is a symptom of the kinds of social imbalances expected during a very large degree social correction). The US will eventually deal with shades of this same issue as we too will struggle with how to allocate resources in a society that needs to rejuvenate itself and its productive capacity without incurring massive debt.

Social corrections are a societal (group) process that enforces a corrective dynamic to look at critical ways to reorganize social capital that enables later expansion. Of course, societies do come and go but this natural cycle can be seen repeating in ever larger patterns over time and can be seen reliably to cycle back around to old unresolved issues that affect the creative capacity of a nation of people. Earthquakes are also a natural legacy of the Japanese culture. So too is their great need for energy in our modern world. Energy modernization and social resource decentralization are the kind critical themes you would expect see at his degree of trend of Japan's developing social mood. And much as Japan may be seeing dark days right now, they also might soon be working meaningfully towards the resolution of these most critical issues.

What really matters most?  This is the underlying question that naturally brings the big issues to the public focus during social corrections of all sizes. Depending upon the size (degree) of the social correction, the issues brought up will differ or, in the case of natural disasters it can be forced.  And while this generalized observation is worth a more detailed analysis, it is enough for now to point to how this broad set of observations can be used in different ways and even within key industrial verticals in a society. The only requirement to make this happen is to mix a socionomic mindset with deep subject knowledge.

Seeing current events and social change through the lens of the big picture can be very helpful during especially trying times. 

Kan Told To Decentralize Japan on Anihilation Danger to Tokyo Bloomberg 3 11

Visualizing Fives as sets of Two's

a short post for those interested in wave principle

Social Mood Versus Social Media; how to anticipate granular change

see post note added at end  as well as link previously added  1 10 12

 

Large scale social change is a remarkable thing.

This blog is about a model for seeing change. It is about a tool that offers trending insight to large groups of people. Social mood, the primary social trend, operates at this level and it is here that it can be used to orient us to seeing why groups and our tools experience incremental changes at varying rates.

The socionomic model is a way to organize distinct trends in social change. It allows us to sort seemingly disparate changes based on subtle, shared beliefs that impact behavior. I often refer to these, here, as shared values.  

The mass adoption of social media tools like Facebook and Twitter in the US has had an underlying set of assumptions (shared values) attached, very generally, to these endeavors. It is important to recognize them in case any of them begin changing:  everyone is a potential friend, sharing is good, and more is better have been widely reflected in our US culture for many, many decades. So it's not surprising that when the initial open invite of social platforms turned to active marketing to sustain the impressive growth, we saw these shared values reflected to us in varied messages.

The wonder of our new connectedness using social media is unprecedented but even that becomes boring after hearing it many times. What is important now is how we might use this perspective to witness real granular change in the robust trend called social media.

Borders Matter Even Though Social Mood Crosses Them Like Bad Weather

Social mood is about how large groups of connected people perceive the always uncertain future. Positive mood sees groups more likely to emphasize where they agree, expand, build, and grow. Negative mood manifests overall tendencies to emphasize differences, consolidate previous gains, evaluate, and correct or pare all kinds of "things" and shared values that are perceived to not really matter most (at this moment). This is, of course, very general. Moreover, it is because we humans built a world with digital communications capabilities that social mood is now being conducted though larger & more numerous groups, and across borders and distances never possible before now in all of human history. 

Comparing social mood to systems of moving social weather is perfectly justified on many levels so long as you see it as coming from within and not being an reaction to outside forces.

Yesterday I found myself talking with people in California about the emerging social protest in the upper midwest. As of this morning it seems to have spread to several states.  My point yesterday was that when this "virus" (the word I used yesterday) spreads to California, and it will go there soon, the ramifications of spending decisions will begin to be felt nationwide (and which state you live in will really matter more than ever). I was asked in passing if this is connected to what is happening in the middle east right now.

The best way to describe social mood is as something that emanates from groups of people as it spreads amongst individuals in interconnected groups. It is a naturally occurring predisposition to look toward the uncertainty ahead and share these generalized images with each other. It is out of these forward looking generalizations that we take and share with the many other groups we are connected to, in all areas of our increasingly complex lives, and then use them ourselves to build (or take down) using this emotional foundation.  So, the developing social mood flows across national borders like weather systems and that is something you can count on. There is, however, the different charters of each society of people to consider.  These agreements, like our US Constitution, provide for all kinds of circumstances that arise over time. Some of these charter agreements are built better than others and what seems to be essential these days is for disgruntled groups to be able to participate in the discussions about change. 

So the real difference between what is happening in the middle east and the kinds of social anger we have being discussed in our media this week are the remedies for resolving what really matters most right now. In places where authoritarian rule exists this dynamic may prevail (containing many social impulses)until mood corrects further or it may break the existing system right now and large groups will demand change, even if it is not agreed upon what specific change is needed. Not all periods of social correction produce these dramatic changes in societal charters.  In well chartered societies that are prepared for disagreement, we will see increasingly polarized positions and acts of disobedience spread from group to group and place to place. These actions are meant to test the very structures we built together as we collectively determine what really matters.

It is very common to hear people fondly refer to the demonstrations of the 60s and the other social dynamics back then that created both stark contrasts of shared values and our eventual national meeting of the minds to absorb these differences into our national psyche. What I've seen recently are political acts of disobedience that are unprecedented in my life. They seem to reflect a new normal that is somehow socially ok. Call the President a liar in public? Deny a recent election's results by staging no shows?  Outrage and acts of great defiance within the construct of political discourse is not unprecedented in US history but you have to go farther than the 1960s to see the best parallels (IMO) or the new extremes we will be seeing. I think a better comparison for now is to the 1850s and 1860s when members of Congress still carried knives and sidearms on their person into the chamber, and when fist fights and other violence was not yet only part of history books even though the US was expanding territorially and economically. Various aggregate social behavior measured by our money is obviously not always the best measure of social mood because money can be changed more and faster than the social weather, harming its immediate metering benefit. It is how we use static forms of value (in specific ways)that often give us a good sense of significant periods of mood change. 

PBS produced some fantastic historic perspectives of the period around the civil war. They are really worth watching. The war was the cumulative result of years of social anger and polarity brought on by declining social mood. The purpose of periods of social correction (large declines in social mood) is to correct previous growth so that the social unit is balanced and able to renew growth.   I am not suggesting that we are headed toward a civil conflict now but, if that period reminds us of anything, it is how participation and the willingness to find common ground is at the very root of a diverse and free society.  Acts of defiance may well become common as we are seeing but so often those acting are dismissing the concerns of their very own neighbors.  Social bifurcation of all shapes and sizes will be resolved worked on at some point in the years to come. These imbalances are not always obvious or clear as we are seeing in Wisconsin.  Oftentimes it will take a several passes at the same effort.  The mid nineteenth century was a good example of this kind of a period of social correction and we would all do well to respect the kinds of trending processes we see developing around us now.  This need not be done in a fearful way but, instead, by respecting how we each belong to many diverse groups that cross many (social, state, and international) boundaries and the various interests are not always in agreement between these groups, so we must resolve that patience and compromise are essential in the process. 

Very often I refer to generational influences as an important element in social workouts of big agreements. The problem was that when the 1960s happened, it was all we could see right then as a nation.  The lessons the middle east should be offering Americans today is how the wishes of a silent younger generation cannot be ignored lest we resolve that nothing will be settled right now in our own disagreements. Large and powerful generations of passionate people tend to dominate (as Americans have seen) but if the next generation is somehow ignored before they find their voice, and as agreements are made, then the root system under today's agreements will be destroyed and the next waves of bad social weather will produce catastrophic mud slides of anything made firm today. Count on it.

Our sound bite and slogan culture loves snappy lines so I will leave you with:

"You can pay me now or you can pay me later." is right up there with "Denial is not a river in Africa."

The US cannot afford to be short sighted while making decisions that are needed now. Sooner or later all the aging "me's" are going to have to realize that the math is not working now and that denying it will not make it go away.

Blog note: The redesign of this blog has not been able to move lately. I am working on a temporary solution.  Still there is a lot going on in the world and especially the US right now in terms of incremental movement of trends all around the US. Year to date the busiest trend folders I keep capture social anger, though the issues surrounding trust (in a financial sense) seem ripe for discussion too. I'll leave the financial issues to the EWI gang.  Three+ years ago we saw the same pattern where trust issues remained beneath the mainstream media surface while they rooted slowly in various financial markets. Is that happening again right now? My central point in this post is how mood changes can often be witnessed in geographically diverse places and soon seen to manifest a few miles away. Where we place our focus can often lead to missing key developments in a globally connected community.  How these mood related issues work out depends upon where you are...and while emotional intensity is sure to be a hallmark of this era, if we each remember to breathe and wait before we react, then we will accomplish so much more together than if we give into rage and emotional demonstrations that reflect playground dynamics. If ideas and things and people need tearing down, then let's do it because our values have collectively changed and recognize how compromise is still the best way to exemplify a nation of free people. I think we can all still agree, that really matters.  Dave    

 Ritholtz.com (The Big Picture) posted the link to this Twitterverse network chart seen to be influencing Arab attitudes (interesting visualization)

Seeing Change Through the Generations Versus Social Mood

Social Media tools will Continue Evolving With Our Shared Outlooks

This was posted at my media blog. Social mood, as a topic, comes up less often over there but is always in the background of the seemingly chaotic change. At the root of all the certainty in all things social media these days is something very malleable.

WRM Large behavioral threads to watch for yourself

This post is a list of Root Trend links I consider What Really Matters from the past year.  Each represents an area of group behavior change that will impact specific markets businesses serve. Each is an important trending set of behaviors.  I watch them for directional changes and incremental markers of distance traveled toward new expressive extremes: Also, At the end of the link list I have made a specific request for ideas regarding web site platforms. I'd really appreciate some feedback if you have experience in this area. Thank you. Dave